It’s so easy to imagine that in the future you’ll definitely have the time to do that thing that you really couldn’t possibly imagine being able to do today. From taking on big projects at work to organising quality time with friends, everything seems possible in just a few weeks “when the kids go back to school” or “after the holidays”, or the classic “when work ‘settles down’”. The future seems like a calm, empty place full of time and possibility. The chaos of today is temporary and just weeks from now it will inevitably subside. If you’ve found yourself thinking this way, it isn’t unusual. In fact, not only are you not alone, but you’re certainly in the majority. You are, in fact, experiencing a well-known cognitive bias that makes you certain that you will have more time in the future.
In the study of time management and productivity, the very pervasive phenomenon of chronic misestimation of future availability is known as “future time slack”. This cognitive bias leads us often to believe we will have more time in the future than we actually will (and way more time that we do right now!). This optimistic perspective can significantly impact planning and scheduling decisions. A seminal study by Zauberman and Lynch Jr. (2005) found that people consistently overestimate their available time in the future, leading to overcommitments and scheduling conflicts. This bias underscores a fundamental misunderstanding of time allocation and highlights the challenges in personal and professional time management.
The implications of future time slack are not insignificant, particularly in professional settings where deadlines and collaborative projects hinge on accurate time estimations. Unrealistic optimism can lead to a cascade of inefficiencies, including missed deadlines, decreased productivity, and increased stress levels among team members. Bias towards future time availability encourages a cycle of overcommitment and delays, which are detrimental to both the quality of work and employee well-being.
Biases are not easy to overcome. Humans are cognitive misers, we have limited time for analysis and an enormous number of decisions to make each day. Our quick thinking and gut instincts can help us get on with things and not get swamped in deeply rational analysis. If it feels like next week will be more easy-going, what’s to say it won’t? But the truth is, while there are objective changes in busyness and more chaotic periods can sometimes give way to calmer times, it’s more likely that next week will look a lot like this week and will contain just as much rescheduling, stress, and broken promises.
Here at Belt, we feel strongly that awareness and innovative, user-friendly features can provide a strategic approach to time management. One of the features we’re extremely proud of is our future workload indicator. At a moment’s glance, users can instantly get a nuanced read on how busy they will be weeks, or even months, from today. Accepting, planning, or simply declining new tasks or responsibilities becomes an evidence-based process instead of a gut feeling. By providing a realistic estimation of future time commitments, we help users mitigate the negative impacts of the future time slack bias. We know how optimistic our users are and we want to help them achieve more accurate planning practices, reduce stress, and improve overall outcomes.
Zauberman, G., & Lynch, J. G., Jr. (2005). Resource Slack and Propensity to Discount Delayed Investments of Time Versus Money. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 134(1), 23–37. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-3445.134.1.23